SpaceX Dragon
BLUE ORIGIN, BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA and SPACEX were among those from which to select. The results reflect that most of the 158 participants believed that the Space X Dragon and the Boeing CST-100 spacecraft were the most likely to succeed, in that order with Sierra Nevada and Blue Origin the least likely.
Boeing CST-100
The least likely to succeed: BLUE ORIGIN (59 or 37%); SIERRA NEVADA (42 or 26%); BOEING (30 or 18%) and SPACEX (27 or 17%). Therefore, the SPACEX DRAGON and the Boeing CST-100 are viewed as the more likely commercial crew launch spacecraft to emerge by readers of the SPACEPORTS blog.
Source: discover-ghosts.blogspot.com